The Russian expansion in the region

Although it’s surprising that the Russians have a military base for their troops in Iran, what’s stranger is that the Iranian regime has granted them a foothold in its territory. Military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran has existed for a long time, during which the Russians used Iranian airspace and military airports to carry out their joint operation aimed at defending the Assad regime. Why have relations taken a step forward with Russians being granted the use of an Iranian military base, instead of Iran simply allowing the Russians to use their airspace? This makes the situation suspicious and we will continue to wonder about the nature of this new alliance until we are provided with convincing answers.

I doubt that the joint war in Syria is the only motivation behind this development in military relations. There was cooperation between the two countries before the existence of the base and that period of cooperation achieved its goals. However, it now seems that Moscow is resorting to mystery and to sending contradictory messages. Around three months ago, the Kremlin officially announced the withdrawal of most of its troops from Syria. It said it had accomplished most of the goals it went to Syria to achieve. Weeks after this announcement was made, the world found out that the Russian command had actually increased its participation in the war and escalated its sorties in Syrian airspace.

Does Moscow’s step toward expanding its military activity in the Middle East, including the adoption of Iran’s Hamadan airport as a base for Russian aircraft, have anything to do with its struggle with NATO in central Asia, eastern Europe and what used to be Soviet Union republics?

The Russian government’s NATO representative spoke to television channel Russia Today and said that NATO had moved toward implementing a deterrent plan against Russia. He added that the Western alliance was deploying four battalions in eastern European countries to enhance its presence in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea and also stated that NATO was intensifying its patrols in Baltic countries.

It is likely that Moscow’s rapprochement with Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime will come at the expense of its relations with other countries in the Middle East

Abdulrahman al-Rashed

Even if confronting the West is the Russian excuse for using Iran as a military headquarters, this does not justify its support of Tehran , a move which cannot be considered within the map of strategic balance against NATO.

Truth be told, Iran is engaged in wars which do not concern the US, such as the wars in Syria and Yemen. Syria is the focus of the alliance between Moscow and Tehran, however, the ongoing Syrian crisis does not concern the Americans who have refused to intervene.

Contradicting the reality on the ground

The Iranians are cooperating with the Americans in Iraq on a military level, something we have seen play out in Anbar, Fallujah and most recently in Mosul. Therefore, if the Russian justification behind their alliance with Iran is that it’s directed against the US and NATO in general, it contradicts the facts of the battlefield.

It is likely that Moscow’s rapprochement with Ayatollah Khamenei’s regime will come at the expense of its relations with other countries in the Middle East.

I don’t rule of that Russia will abort all recent efforts at rapprochement with Arab Gulf countries and indeed other countries which have expressed interest in bolstering relations with Russia – something we have not seen for a century.

Many Arab leaders, presidents and kings have visited the Kremlin, signed economic deals and agreed on unprecedented military purchases. These visits, and the Arab rapprochement with Moscow, led many military and political figures in Washington to criticize Barack Obama’s administration for the perceived abandonment of US relations in the Arab region, leaving the space open to the Russians.

What do the Iranians want?

In granting the Russians the Hamadan military base, the Iranians may be aiming to negotiate with, and blackmail, the Americans following the apparent failure of the nuclear agreement which was reached last year between Iran and the West.

The alternative to the agreement is military cooperation between Iran and the Russians but what’s new about that? Cooperation between the two countries is nothing new, however, the Iranians now want Russia to be more than an arms trading partner and instead become an ally in Iran’s wars.

These are all the possible scenarios one imagines when analyzing the Iranian-Russian decision. To recap, the alliance between the two countries could reflect Moscow’s desire to expand its military and political influence, or it could be part of the Russian strategy to confront Iran, or it could be part of an Iranian plan to blackmail the West into activating the nuclear agreement.

This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on Aug. 21, 2016.

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Abdulrahman al-Rashed is the former General Manager of Al Arabiya News Channel. A veteran and internationally acclaimed journalist, he is a former editor-in-chief of the London-based leading Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, where he still regularly writes a political column. He has also served as the editor of Asharq al-Awsat’s sister publication, al-Majalla. Throughout his career, Rashed has interviewed several world leaders, with his articles garnering worldwide recognition, and he has successfully led Al Arabiya to the highly regarded, thriving and influential position it is in today. He tweets @aalrashed