The Syrian Observatory For Human Rights

Why Russia and Assad are now ready to smash Idlib

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s truce over Syria’s Idlib governate was always a joke. Now, Russia is preparing to prove it.

Alongside Syrian President Bashar Assad’s forces, the Russian military has spent the past week boosting its operational tempo in and around Idlib. The last major holdout of the Sunni rebellion against Assad’s rule, purging Idlib has always been a top priority for the dictator and his Russian-Iranian allies. To set the ground for the coming storm, Russia’s Western-focused propaganda outlets are steadily escalating their claims that rebels in Idlib are breaching the cease-fire. It’s largely untrue, but it reflects the Kremlin’s desire to deflect the Western criticism that will follow when it starts blitzing Idlib homes and hospitals.

Still, the most basic rationale for a joint Russian-Assad-Iranian offensive on Idlib is diplomatic — namely, President Trump’s announcement of a withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Syria. That announcement has depleted U.S. influence as a counterforce against sectarianism and armed escalation, and it shows.

In America’s looming withdrawal from northern Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has his grand opportunity to crush the Kurds. That prize, motivated by security interests and Ottoman mythos, gives Erdogan new reason to swallow his pride and remaining morality. Putin will have told Erdogan that Russia will restrain Assad from pushing against Turkish forces in northern Syria. But only, that is, if Erdogan cedes the Idlib question. So, he will.

But Assad and Russia are also emboldened by the now-overt acceptance of their erstwhile adversaries, the Sunni-Arab monarchies, that Assad’s power is consolidated and that the rebels fighting him have lost. They see no obvious downside to hitting Idlib where once fear of political isolation would have weighed on their calculus. All of this was entirely predictable. But it proves that Trump’s withdrawal from Syria has eviscerated U.S. leverage to the benefit of our adversaries.

Where does this leave us?

Well, Sunni civilians in Idlib will soon suffer a bloodbath. In that suffering and the sectarian-vested anger it proffers, Idlib’s slaughter will fuel terrorist recruitment by groups like the Islamic State. This is bad news for America’s long-term security.

Source: Why Russia and Assad are now ready to smash Idlib