Russian intervention in Syria 53 months on: new deals work in Syrian regime’s favour .. tense calm interrupted by sporadic breaches .. and Moscow pass the buck to Ankara
As the whole world pays full attention to the new coronavirus pandemic which may cause decisive changes in international relations, Russia’s plans are proceeding in the 53rd consecutive month of its involvement in the Syrian crisis. Russia took advantage of the world being preoccupied with finding a way to prevent the spread of novel coronavirus to broker new deals with Turkey, helping the Syrian regime to hold onto more than 300 areas, villages and towns captured by regime forces in January and February.
The new ceasefire in the “de-escalation zone”, agreed upon between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Receb Tayyip Erdogan after their meeting in early March, led to full suspension of military operations and enabled regime forces to annex large swaths of territory previously held by rebels and opposition factions supported by Turkey. However, the situation inside Syria has not experienced any improvement, at a time when Turkey keeps sending troops and military reinforcement to the “de-escalation zone”.
On September 30, 2015, the Council of the Russian Federation granted Russian President Vladimir Putin the mandate to militarily engage in the Syria crisis. At that time, Putin announced that Russian intervention would be limited to airstrikes in order to defeat the “Islamic State” and other extremists in the legitimate war of the Syrian army against these groups, upon the request of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Russian forces immediately began launching air strikes on “Islamic State” positions, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, after which Russian forces launched series of strikes, raids and military and political aid to Assad’s regime, resulting in the Syrian regime to regain control of about 72.8% of the total territory of Syria after being in control of no more than 20%.
With 53 months of the Russian intervention in the Syrian war, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights continues to document and monitor the repercussions of Russia’s intervention and the development of political and military scenes since the first raids of that Moscow launched in Syria.
Despite the hopes placed on the Russian-Turkish agreement and the joint patrols supposed to be run in Idlib in north-western Syria region, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on March 15 that the path of first joint patrol with the Turkish forces would be shortened, because of what the Russians described as “provocations by terrorist formations””. Reports have confirmed that Turkey has given additional time limit to neutralize those “terrorist formations” and secure the way of joint patrols on M4 highway.
Military operations, patrols, and supervision: Moscow entrenches itself in Syria and civilians are the ultimate losers
The “de-escalation zone” has experienced relative calm in terms of military operations in March, interrupted by sporadic breaches to the ceasefire which came into effect on March 5. However, Russian jets killed 27 civilians, including a child and six women, and 74 rebels and jihadis over the first five days of this month.
Russia has not had enough with supporting Syrian regime with traditional weapons. However, they turned to unusual internationally prohibited weapons. SOHR sources have reported that Russia used the “Thermite” in their airstrikes, a substance composed of aluminum powder and iron oxide which causes burns because it continues to ignite for about 180 seconds, some the bombs used by Russian jets on the Syrian territory were loaded with this substance.
It was founded out that they are “RBK-500 ZAB 2.5 SM” cluster incendiary bombs each weighed about 500 kg (about 1100 pounds) and they were dropped by the military aircraft. They carried anti-individuals and anti-vehicles small sized bombs of the type ((AO 2.5 RTM)), loaded with from 50 to 110 small-sized bombs stuffed with “Thermite”, which outpour out of it when they explode, the range of this anti-individuals and anti-vehicles bombs reaches 20 to 30 meters.
Russian and regime forces exploited the recent developments in NW Syria region earlier this month, and struck new reconciliation and settlement deals in Al-Sanamayn city in Daraa. On March 2, reliable sources informed SOHR that 26 persons from Al-Sanamayn city, who refused to reconcile with the Syrian regime, were evacuated to NW Syria with Russian mediation. Meanwhile, other former fighters who preferred to stay have had their security status settled with regime authorities.
Cooperation with Turkey: Astana decisions and accords are in the wind
Throughout February, tension escalated between Russia and Turkey over the large-scale offensive by Russian-backed regime forces on Idlib and Aleppo, despite the Russian guarantees and assurances agreed upon in Astana and Sochi. This tension became undeniable after attacks on Hmeimim military airbase, Russia’s main base in Syria.
On February 20, four missiles were fired on Hmeimim airbase from rebels-held territories. According to very reliable SOHR sources, this was the first time for Hmeimim airbase to be targeted from this area, which means that Turkey wanted to send a direct message to Russia, suggesting that it could target regime-held areas and the Syrian coastline anytime.
SOHR sources confirmed that the missiles were shot down by air-defense systems and fell on agricultural land in Jabla countryside.
“After this shelling, Turkish forces shelled regime-held areas in Salma and the north-eastern countryside of Latakia with artillery, then Russian jets bombarded the areas from which the four missiles had been fired as well as other places in Idlib. Meanwhile, Turkish and regime forces traded fire in which regime forces targeted the perimeter of Ishtabraq observation post and Turkish troops shelled regime-held areas in Saraqeb” sources added.
On February 4, SOHR sources reported that a Russian military delegation was heading to “Alloka” area to check the water purification station that provides Al-Hasakah province with water, when Turkish forces intercepted it preventing the delegation from crossing. Activists informed SOHR that the Turkish forces opened fire in the air to force the Russians to return back. The incident reflected a side of the escalating disagreement between Russia and Turkey. Such disagreement started to publicly emerge with the reiterated attacks on the Russian airbase of Hmeimim.
According to reliable SOHR sources, when the Russian delegation returned to Abu Rasin area, it lowered all the Russian flags that had been risen with regime flags on posts where regime troops were deployed along the area between Kasra and Tal Tamr.
NE Syria: tense calm follows U.S.-Russia skirmishes and tension in the region
Since Turkey launched its operation “Peace Spring” in northern Syria on October 9, Turkish forces and Turkish-backed factions advanced inside the SDF-held areas with an extensive air and land cover in a total area of 4875 km2 (9.2% of the total area previously controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces), which is more than a quarter of the area of Lebanon. At the same time, regime forces deployed in the region under an agreement between SDF and the regime through Russian mediation, into an area estimated at 18,821 km2 (35.6% of the total area of the SDF), which means that the SDF lost control of 23,641 km2, after it has been in control of an area of 52,916 square kilometers (28.6% of the total area of Syria) before the start of the Turkish military operation, meaning that “SDF” now only controls 15.7% of the total Syrian territories.
US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from northern Syria on October 6 marked a green light for the Turkish military operation and a green light to redraw the map of alliances and influence in the entire region. The US withdrawal led the SDF to resort to Russia and the regime to deploy regime border guards on the borders with Turkey in exchange for the withdrawal of SDF forces from that region. With the successive withdrawal of the Syrian Democratic Forces in accordance with the Russian-Turkish agreement reached in “Sochi” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the areas of control began to be clear and take shape. For now, the area from Qamishli to Ain Dewar is under US influence, while the region from Qamishli to Ras Al-Ain (Sri Kaniyee) and from Tal Abyad to Ain Al-Arab (Kobani) is under Russian influence. Meanwhile, the area from Ras al-Ain To Tal Abyad is subject to Turkish influence and the Turkish-backed, at a time when areas in “Abu Rasin” and “Tal Tamr” countryside, which connects to Ras Al-Ain, witness renewed clashes between SDF and the Turkish-backed factions, as the case for the area between Ain Issa And Tal Abyad.
According to SOHR observations over the past month, the north-eastern Syria region experienced tense calm after months of skirmishes and hassles took place between U.S. and Russian troops. The Russian forces have deployed advanced air defense missile systems at al-Qamishli Airbase in the far northeast of Syria, amid escalating tension between Russian forces and their American counterpart in north-eastern region of Syria.
Syrian Observatory activists have monitored a state of tension continuing between the U.S. forces and their Russian counterpart. Each side tries to extend its influence and control over the area and the strategic highway of Al-Hasakah – Aleppo International Highway in particular.
Recently, the area had been the scene of heightened tension and daily skirmishes between both sides. Also the U.S. forces prevented movements of Russian patrols in several areas.
Over the past months, Observatory activists monitored that U.S. forces were deployed at the entrances and exits of the strategic town of Tal Tamr which is a link between Al-Hasakah – Al-Qamishli – Aleppo. They were also deployed at the entrance of Abu Rasin (Zarkan) and the junction in Ghabish village, and ran many patrols on Aleppo – Al-Hasakah highway known as “M4”.
These actions come as a part of the U.S. attempts to undermine the Russian role in NE Syria, and prevent the Russians from using the M4 highway in the area, except when heading to the border areas with Turkey.
On January 20, activists told SOHR that a U.S. patrol stopped a Russian one in Mustafawiyah village of Al-Malikiyah (Dayrik) in Al-Hasakah countryside, and prevented it from reaching Smilka border crossing.
On January 18, U.S. forces intercepted a Russian patrol in Tal Fukhar village while the patrol was heading to the countryside of Al-Malikiyah city (Dayrik). According to SOHR sources, the Russian patrol has been stopped for two hours which caused traffic jam on the road, before SDF mediated between both forces. After that, the Russian patrol continued its way to Al-Malikiyah countryside, while the U.S. forces headed to Rumaylan base.
On 17th of January, a column of the Russian forces of about 40 cars was heading towards Tal Tamr town in al-Hasakah countryside when an American patrol intercepted the Russian patrol, which caused a state of tension between both parties ended with the departure of the Russian forces which headed towards Ayn Issa town, after mediation by the Syria Democratic Forces.
The Syrian Observatory monitored on the 14th of January 2020 that a U.S. patrol stopped a Russian patrol at Hittin junction on the road between Al-Hasakah and Al-Qamishly. An altercation took place between both parties ended with the return of the Russian patrol after being prevented from continuing its way on the M4 Highway.
As months pass, the Syrians suffer the scourge of the Russian intervention, which seems to resemble a kind of revenge and retaliation against Syrians for protesting against the regime that committed the worst violations against its own people. At a time when the map of alliances and power balances is changing, Russia has become the ultimate winner, succeeding in helping the Syrian regime regaining control over about two-thirds of the country after losing control of most of its territory. Moscow used the pretext of “the war on terror” to commit massacres against civilians, and sponsored and struck agreements which soon after abandoned. Moscow and its war machine spilt in the blood of Syrians despite claiming to be “political mediator” or “broker” that can deal with all parties to the conflict.
With all recent changes in the balance of powers, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights renews its appeals to the international community to put pressure on Russia to stop its aggression against the Syrians, and to find a political solution to end the Syrian crisis that is nearing its ninth year. Given what the SOHR has documented and observed of Russia’s military intervention and announcements and claims, both officially and publicly, of its role and presence in Syria as “fighting terrorism”, it is incumbent on Russia to explain why it is overlooking or perhaps tolerating the presence of “Islamic State” in Al-Badia region, an area of about 4000 km2 (1.8% of the total Syrian territories) extending from Jabal Abu-Rajmin in the northeast of Palmyra to the desert of Deir Al-Zour and its western countryside, and in Sokhna’s desert and in north of the administrative borders of Suwayda. This can only mean the real objective of Russia’s military intervention is not fighting ‘terrorism’ but killing and displacing civilians, destroying houses and properties, and helping the regime win the war.