Daraa in one year: security chaos, overlapping interests and hidden conflict…people suffer the scourge of external and internal interventions
In light of the security chaos in Daraa, the “cradle of the revolution” that broke out in Syria in 2011, which the Syrian regime regained from the hands of opposition factions in 2018 summer with the support of Russia, insecurity spreads in the area starting with assassinations, bombings, kidnappings, etc., while the bloodshed continues to ravage Daraa and its people since June 2019, not to mention the material losses and destruction.
Daraa’s strategic importance
Daraa governorate is of crucial importance, bothpolitically and economically , as it is a strategic hub on the map of Syrian military operations. Additionally, its geographical importance stems from the fact that it is a hub connecting a series of Syrian regions, as it is a link between the central and south-eastern regions of Syria. Economically, it is a reliable source for the Syrian economy, an international route linking Damascus to Beirut and Amman, on which Syria relied as a major trade outlet with Jordan before the revolution.
A failed truce followed by insecurity
Security unrest and instability in Daraa have been exacerbated by the regime’s desire for military success, and tightening its grip on all areas of Daraa after it was recaptured from opposition factions. This in turn led to a cycle of violence. Meanwhile, a deal of “reconciliation” was concluded in 2018 between the regime and the rebel fighters who refused to leave their areas. Under Russian auspicious, the fighters were required to surrender their heavy weapons in exchange for ensuring that they could not be arrested or prosecuted and for postponing the compulsory military service for those who failed to enlist. Also, former fighters have been offered to join pro-Assad or Pro-Russian armed groups as fresh recruits.
Demonstrations have been on the rise in recently, as SOHR monitored a demonstration in Tafas, west of Daraa, on 17 June 2020, calling for the overthrow of the regime and the expulsion of Iranian militias from Syrian territory. SOHR also monitored two demonstrations on 12 June 2020, the first in Daraa al-Balad and the second in the town of Giza, both demanding the removal of Iranian militias from Syria, the overthrow of the Syrian regime, and the release of detainees.
Regarding the deteriorating security, kidnappings of children and adults by unknown persons have been on the rise during the past two months. SOHR learned that a child was abducted on the road between the eastern towns of Al-Ghariya and Al-Masifra. In early May 2020, nine police officers were also kidnapped and killed by unidentified gunmen, while regime intelligence arrested a former faction leader in Jassim town who refused to “reconcile” with the regime.
A year of violence
Since June 2019, SOHR recorded a spike in the number of attacks and assassination attempts carried out in various forms such as detonating bombs, mines, booby-trapped vehicles and shooting by armed cells, which reached more than 529 assassinations, while the number of those killed during the same period reached 345, they are: 86 civilians, including 8 females and 8 children, in addition to 169 regime forces and loyal militants, 55 faction fighters who made “compromises and reconciliations” and became part of the regime’s security apparatus, including former commanders, 19 Syrian militiamen affiliated with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iranian forces, and 16 affiliated with the so-called “Fifth Corps” formed by Russia.
A hidden conflict
Conflicts between the various factions of the opposition and the regime are intensifying, as well as the international rivalry represented by the Russian and Iranian presence in the region, where the Syrian Observatory has been monitoring closely a new hidden conflict between the Fifth Corps and the 4th Division, headed by Maher Al-Assad. This conflict is the continuing attempts by both to exert full influence on the province. After the 5th Corps forces asserted their influence on the ground, the 4th Division has recently returned to the scene.
According to reliable SOHR sources, the “4th Division” seeks to attract men and young people, especially former rebel fighters in exchange for huge monthly salaries and other material privileges, and recently managed to attract dozens to deploy at the checkpoints after subjecting them to military training in the western countryside of Daraa. On the other hand, Russians still have the upper hand through the Fifth corps that includes former faction’s fighters who refused to displace to Idlib, reconciled and compromised with the regime, which is a sign of further tensions in the area, especially as pro-regime forces continue to be targeted.
The escalation continues in Daraa, particularly given Russia’s near-total absence from patrolling in those areas, or even the areas they held away from the regime, such as Tafas and Al-Sanmin in accordance with reconciliation deals. Also, there is an increase in the number of assassinations, bombings, kidnappings and civil disobedience.
The causes of violence are numerous in Daraa, where Russia and Iran have resorted to establishing their own forces in southern Syria, on the border with Jordan and the occupied Syrian Golan, in an indirect competition for influence in the region, exacerbating insecurity. The regime’s breach of reconciliation and settlement agreements with opposition factions is among the reasons for the continuing violence and insecurity, not to mention the failure of Moscow, which has acted as a guarantor and mediator in those agreements, and tried to bridge the rift and their differences.
Because of the distinguished geographical location of Daraa and its cities, which have a common border with Jordan and the occupied Syrian Golan, foreign intervention by neighbouring countries, especially Israel, has expanded. At a time when Iranian attention is shifting to establishing its influence in several areas of Daraa, Iran has been able to recruit thousands of men, young and old, by playing on sectarian and financial strings.
Among the causes of the security deterioration are the continuing economic crisis and poor living conditions, not to mention the economic stranglehold imposed on regime areas due to “Caesar Act” sanctions. On 9 June 2020, the Syrian Observatory monitored a demonstration in Tafas denouncing the deteriorating living conditions in the country, particularly with the failure of the municipalities to do their part, which is to serve the people of the region over two years of regime control. The province is experiencing a dramatic surge in prices and shortages in key commodities and supplies such as gas, flour and water.
The complicated conflicts considering the overlapping interests of the opposing and competing forces in the various regions of Daraa threaten to cause further instability , due to the failure of the regime to fulfil its obligations to the people of Daraa. Also, the regime is continuing to deal with the same old “security mentality”, which cannot be tolerated nowadays given the internal and external changes that have taken place over the years.
The current tension in Daraa serves all intervening parties except the people of Daraa, since they bear enormous losses as a result of the continuing unrest, while regional and international forces achieve their goals, including deeper involvement in the Syrian conflict, deals and the dissemination of political ideologies that correspond to their future agendas, as well as changing the Syrian map to ensure the success of their progress and incursion into the country.