Constitutional Committee member Dr. Basma Qademani: The conflict within Assad’s family is caused by shrinking power sharing… Assad no longer has any political balance

Politicians say the solution in Syria is now more complicated than ever after 10 years since the start of the peaceful revolution, noting that international map and trends have changed completely in the wake of the expansion of chaos and the terrorist organizations gaining control in many areas in Syria.

Syrian opposition leader and politician Dr. Basma Qademani, a member of the Syrian Constitutional Committee, spoke to the Syrian Observatory about the current situation and the crisis of the regime, the role of the opposition in shaping a peaceful political solution, as well as the importance of the role of women in  political decision-making.

“The date of regional and international settlements to resolve the Syrian crisis, which is the hope of all Syrians, will take more time than the Syrian people can stand. The same people who are suffering from a tragic and very difficult situation,” she said, adding that she hoped that the solution would be “close and peaceful after all this suffering and destruction”. Qademani thinks  that “the political settlement will be the result of agreements at an international and regional level, so that  space will open up to the Syrians, meaning that it is not a Syrian but an international decision”.

“ People are exhausted and are still living in terror, either because of the resumption of aerial bombardment, or as a result of the fear of being arrested and robbed in areas that the regime has regained control of, where Syrian citizens are suffering from hunger and tragic living conditions,” she said.

With regard to the conflict within the ruling family and its implications for the Syrian crisis and the political solution, she pointed out that the causes of the differences “are related to the shrinking power sharing within the regime as a result of plundering the country’s wealth, and when the amounts of money decreased the conflict between members of the ruling family started over money and nothing else”.

“There is no doubt that conflict within the family is important, as it indicates the collapse of one of the most important deals that allowed Assad to consolidate and strengthen his authority at the beginning of his rule, which is the deal within the family,” said Dr. Qademani, recalling what she described as “very high tension” within the family earlier.

“The various parties within the family were trying to get their hands on a part of the power, in an attempt to exploit Bashar’s weakness and lack of experience,” she said, “Bashar did not tolerate the presence of powerful men around him, as they aspire to control the organs or institutions that constitute a source of power, so he ceded to the Makhlouf family , i.e. his uncle Mohammed and his sons, a large part of the wealth, in exchange for their support in enabling him to control security and foreign policy. This family deal is falling apart today, just as the security structure that would not have survived without the Iranian and Russian support”.

On the role of the political opposition, Qademani said that the opposition “did not differ much in its vision for a solution, as there is a need to bring together all the social and political forces within the country after all the crimes committed by the regime”.

Qademani said that most Syrians aspire to overthrow the regime with the least additional human and economic losses, adding that “groups that were loyal to the regime are desperate today of its ability to manage the next stage after failing to respond to the legitimate and peaceful demands of the people”.

The Syrian politician called on the opposition abroad to “hold political negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations to develop arrangements to ensure a peaceful solution and a smooth political transition in the country as the biggest challenge,” referring to the start of the negotiations to draft a new constitution despite its disruption by the regime committee. Qademani criticized “the unwillingness of the Assad team to engage in serious negotiations, for the fear of producing an alternative to what exists today”.

Regarding Assad’s opportunities in the presidential elections next year and his intention to participate, Qademani said that “Assad has reached bankruptcy and has no balance, he could no longer finance his loyalists, whether military, security or civilian, because of the collapse of his economy”.

“If the elections were held, it will be invalid, because the date set by the regime is no longer possible, given that the Security Council resolution which the negotiations in Geneva are based has set a new timetable. Also, the Security Council Resolution 2254 has emphasized the drafting of a constitution that will result in fair and transparent elections,” she said, “Therefore, a new phase must be considered, starting with drafting a new constitution and then holding serious elections, which will not happen next year due to the disruption of drafting the constitution”.

Dr. Basma Qademani also pointed out that the regime’s handling of all problems is useless, as it sees the demands of the people as illegal and uses the force and weapons against them, adding that the areas recovered by the regime complain about the lack of economic development.  

Regarding the detainees’ file, Qademani said it is one of the most difficult files, despite all the efforts of the opposition at home and abroad, along with civil society and the families of the detainees, and no progress has been made until after the Corona pandemic. “There are those who believe that some parties, specifically Iran, are able to pressure the regime to gradually release detainees as part of confidence-building measures, but others believe that there is very little hope for this path, and that the issue of detainees will not be resolved until a comprehensive solution is reached. Of course, we need to continue with all these efforts, because any detainee  released is a great joy for an entire family and a source of hope for the rest of the detainees’ families”.

“The first steps in this file are broken as the regime did not allow the release of children and women and international organizations were not allowed access to the detention facilities to visit them and find out the fate of the missing,” she said.

As for the development of women’s movement in Syria in recent years despite the war, Qademani pointed out to the existing women’s organizations that have emerged and developed in the past few years, and dealt with everything related to the status of women in conflict, such as violence of all kinds. “Some cases have reached the prosecution of the perpetrators of crimes against women,” she said.

“Women’s movement is progressing slowly, but it is beginning to impose itself and organize the work and development of awareness among Syrian women and will impose itself in the future on political parties, coordination committees and organizations, as a strong, prominent and important entities,” she said. Qademani also called for the establishment of strong, active and organized movements in this regard.

However, as for Caesar Act, Dr. Basma Qademani believes that it is formulated with great caution in order not to affect the lives of the average citizen. She expressed the hope that “these sanctions will be smart targeting criminals and corrupt people and their institutions and not affecting the average Syrian citizen who has been exhausted by the war”. She stressed that the suffering of the Syrian people did not come from Caesar Act, but from the methods that the regime has been using against its own citizens, which she described as corrupt. She added: “Here we must wait for the results of this act so we can make a judgement”.