The Syrian Observatory For Human Rights

SOHR: From the Arab Spring to the Refugee Crisis: Exploring Syria’s Decade of Civil War

At present, the nation is divided into three main areas of control. The government of President Bashar al-Assad rules around 70% of the country, having driven rebel forces from the outskirts of the capital, Damascus, and regaining control of other major Syrian cities such as Aleppo and Homs.

The northwestern province of Idlib is the last great opposition stronghold, dominated there by the jihadist alliance Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Northeastern Syria is now a de facto self-governing Kurdish region, Rojava, controlled by a US-backed militia, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

In addition, there are other enclaves: on Rojava’s northern border with Turkey are buffer zones seized by Turkish troops and their Sunni Arab allies, to prevent Kurdish forces from allying with the separatist Kurds in the area. interior of Turkey. There are pockets of rebel control and even remains of Isis in the south.

How did the situation come about?

The war began with a brutal crackdown on protests in the Arab Spring of 2011, but escalated into military conflict this fall, when sections of Assad’s forces began to defect and take up arms against the government.

The protests were initially largely against the economic woes, but soon began to reflect the country’s long-standing sectarian divisions, with a Sunni Arab majority rising against Assad’s government and security forces, who are dominated by its Alawite sect, a branch of Shia Islam.

And increasingly, it became a sectarian proxy war: the government was backed by Iran and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah (and, crucially, Russia); The Sunni rebels were supported by the Gulf states and Turkey.

Furthermore, the war abruptly changed when the Caliphate of Isis was declared in Syria in 2013. As Isis entered the Kurdish areas, US forces supported the predominantly Kurdish SDF, who fought and defeated Isis, taking its capital Raqqa in 2017.

How was the current impasse reached?

At its lowest point in 2014, Assad’s government controlled only 30% of the country. With the support of Russia and Iran, it survived, but at a price: Hezbollah controls part of its territory; the current borders were set by the mandatory powers, notably Russia, through informal peace agreements.

The conflict has largely been frozen since March 2020, when – after Turkish troops entered into direct confrontation with Russian-backed government forces in northwestern Syria – Turkey and Russia established a buffer zone to defuse the situation.

However, the fighting continues: Russian and government forces bombard Idlib; there are skirmishes between the SDF and Turkish-backed forces on the Turkish border. Last month, Assad’s forces entered the southern rebel stronghold of Daraa for the first time in ten years. “The war against Syrian civilians continues,” warns the UN.

What was the human cost?

Atrocities have been committed by all sides, but in particular by Assad’s forces, which have become notorious for targeting civilian areas with shells, barrels of explosives and chemical weapons.

Last month, the UN said it had documented a “minimum verifiable number” of 350,200 war deaths, including 26,727 women and 27,126 children, but described it as “certainly an undercount”. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates the total number of deaths at over 606,000.

In March, the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria said tens of thousands of civilians who had been detained by the regime were still “missing”. The war also created the biggest refugee crisis of this century.

How many people have been displaced?

The UN estimates that 13.5 million Syrians have been forcibly displaced since 2011, more than half of the 22 million inhabitants of the country before the war: 6.7 million have been internally displaced in Syria; and 6.8 million have sought refuge abroad. Turkey received the largest number of refugees – 3.6 million at the start of this year – and Lebanon 865,000. Germany took 675,000 Syrians, Sweden 190,000 and the United Kingdom 23,000.

In March, the Syrian parliament ratified a new law denying citizenship to anyone who does not renew their identity card after ten years; but those who return risk imprisonment, torture and death.

How are conditions in Syria today?

Terrible. In July 2021, the UN estimated that nearly 50% of Syrian families suffered from hunger. During Assad’s reign, a combination of war damage, corruption, Western sanctions, Covid-19 and the bank collapse in Lebanon, where many wealthy Syrians kept their money, created economic devastation.

For the 3.4 million civilians in rebel-controlled Idleb – more than half of whom have been displaced from elsewhere in Syria – things are even worse: around 75% of its population depends on aid from the UN.

In homeless-run Rojava, however, conditions are relatively good. The autonomous government controls Syrian oil, which it sells to Iraq, which means it is able to pay local officials and manage basic services. Raqqa, the ancient capital of Isis, has recently been described as a “booming city”.

Is lasting peace likely?

Not yet. Talks between the Syrian government and opposition groups will resume this month in Geneva. But as Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, admitted, the negotiations have “not yet started to progress steadily”.

Talks between Russia and Turkey last week also brought no change, and some analysts believe a resumption of fighting in Idlib is likely. However, the Assad regime’s relations with the Arab world are slowly normalizing: neighboring Jordan has opened its main border to Syria, and Egypt has pledged to work for its return to the Arab League, ten years later. his suspension for the brutal repression of protests.

The US State Department for its part declared that “there is no question that the United States will normalize its relations with [Assad’s] government at the moment ”.

 

 

Source: Albania News