SOHR: RUSSIA’S SYRIAN “MERCENARIES” – MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING?

Since Russia expressed its willingness to use volunteers from the Middle East in the invasion of Ukraine a few days ago, the dissemination of information about the alleged recruitment of up to 40,000 Syrian mercenaries has skyrocketed, despite the fact that the figures do not seem realistic either logistically or militarily. .

The last friday, Russia put the number of volunteers from the Middle East willing to support them in the war at 16,000, without specifying how many of them would come from Syria, where since 2015 it has been intervening militarily in favor of the dictatorial Syrian regime and where it has a strong influence over various contingents and militias. .

However, analysts consulted by Efe point out that if soldiers are sent from Syria to Ukrainethese will not be “volunteers”but soldiers already enlisted in the Armed forces Syrian under Russian control, or they will be militiamen who will hardly pass as “soldiers of fortune” professionals.

In any case, the sources point out that there cannot be many either, since these troops are already engaged in the first line of fire in the Syrian civil war and are therefore not expendable.

link with the army

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rightsa reputable NGO based in the United Kingdom and a wide network of collaborators on the ground, He claims that in recent weeks some 40,000 Syrian fighters from different groups have registered their names for a possible shipment to Ukrainian territory.

“The registration to go to Ukraine has not been a voluntary act, but rather it was produced through coordination between officers and leaders of these groups, and Russian officers at the Hmeimim airbase (northwest Syria)”said the director of Observatory, Rami Abdul Rahman.

According to Rami, Almost 22,000 of these candidates would travel with links to the Russian Army and would receive around 1,000 euros per month, while the remaining 18,000 would have registered through the Russian private security company Wagner.

Among the groups that have recruited “volunteers” in its ranks it cites pro-government militias such as Al-Qatirjithe palestinian Liwa to the quds wave Baath Brigadebut also to prominent divisions integrated into the structure of the Syrian Army such as the Fifth Corps and the division 25.

The latter, until a few years ago a militia affiliated with the Syrian Air Force Intelligence, receives “support” from Russia but is part of the Army of the Arab country, which would have to give its approval so that they can travel abroad, acknowledges abdul rahman.

Gregory Watersanalyst at the research center Instituto de Middle East (MEI)explained that in practice both the Fifth Corps as the division 25 is it so “fully commanded” by Russia, which would make it easier for them to be sent to Ukraine compared to other battalions.

since they themselves “arm, train and command” this detachment, the Russians “They would have the ability to temporarily cancel or suspend their contracts with Division 25 so that they sign contracts for Ukraine or any other deployment abroad”.

implausible figures

However, Waters sees it as impossible for Russia to spare even a few “Thousands” of these troops for their operations within Syriasince the 25th Division and the Fifth Corps are “key” for his military role there.

“The Russians are not going to send a substantial portion because these are the units that the Russians use to control the battle space around Idlib, these are the units that would lead the charge of any future offensive in Idlib.”pointed out the expert of the MEIbased in Washington.

The northwestern province of Idlib it is the last opposition stronghold in Syria.

That’s the way it is, the analyst rates “amazing” the figure of 40,000 registered combatants, especially considering the size of the military groups in Syria and the logistical difficulties of moving thousands of people from Syria to Ukraine.

“I would say maybe a couple of thousand would be a realistic number of people that could actually be registered and I think the number that the Russians would actually send, if they send people to Ukraine, would be in the hundreds.”sentenced.

In his opinion, it would be a limited contribution more in line with the sending of some batches of Syrian mercenaries to Libya two years ago, and it would be “More a political thing than a military one.”

Militias close to Russia

For Waters, other groups with traces of lending themselves to the mission are proper militias and “smaller” like the branches of the National Defense Forces led by Nabil Abdullah and Simon al Wakil in two Christian towns of Hama (West).

“They might tend to send some of their fighters as a show of loyalty to the Russians, but these units are not very big and their men are all 20-year-olds, village boys.”specified the expert.

He also sees potential interest in Liwa al Quds, which has grown closer to Russia in recent years, and in former members of the defunct Desert Falcons Brigadewhose co-founder Mohamed Jaber resides on the peninsula crimeaillegally annexed by Russia in 2014. “If Mohamed Jaber says ‘come here’, ‘I’m going to create a militia’, they will go there”he concluded.