Regional powers line up for Syrian influence should Russia step back

Turkey this week closed its airspace to Russian military and civilian flights to Syria after notifying Moscow. At the same time, Ankara is participating in negotiation efforts for a permanent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. It is, therefore, possible to ask if or how the current situation in Ukraine is impacting the Syrian file and the Middle East’s power dynamics. Indeed, Turkey has been renewing its airspace permissions on a quarterly basis, so why close it now? The answer, when it comes to Syria, starts with a triangle of interests and confrontations involving Russia, Iran and Turkey by way of Israel.

It is interesting to notice that the airspace closure came after a series of strikes by Turkey’s military on the Kurdish-run parts of northern Syria. Such strikes are part of a broader intervention in Syria and Iraq and targeted groups that receive support from the US-led Global Coalition Against Daesh. With the end of coordination between the US and Russia, which both guaranteed the solution in northern Syria, there is a new dynamic in play and Ankara understands it. It also understands the equilibrium in northern Syria is quite symbolic of the rest of the country, where Israeli interests must be acknowledged.

And so the situation allows for Turkey’s most important objective of maintaining stability while also avoiding the creation of a new autonomous Kurdish area. It is the exact same reason why Ankara changed its view and no longer pushes for the collapse of the Assad regime. It now has a greater maneuvering capacity.

Meanwhile, Israel on Wednesday conducted a strike near Damascus targeting ammunition depots and Iranian-backed groups that are attempting to increase their foothold in the country, according to media reports. It was Israel’s latest strike in what is the Russia-dominated airspace of Syria. Israel has done its best to balance between its vital interests at its border while aligning with its US ally when it comes to Ukraine. It has been under increasing pressure from Washington and the EU but, despite leaning toward Ukraine, it has not confronted Russia. It is clear that Moscow understands this situation and knows that Israel needs it to balance Iran’s influence in Syria. It is also evident that Washington understands this too but will maintain its pressure on Tel Aviv.

All parties prefer to keep this balance, while nibbling away at small parts of what Russia no longer has the bandwidth to handle

Khaled Abou Zahr

This brings us to the Iranian dynamics in the Syrian file, which are directly linked to Russia. Russia and Iran have never been completely aligned as allies. There have previously been common goals, but also underlying competing interests. This situation became even clearer when both supported the Assad regime’s efforts to stay in power. At first glance, the situation in Ukraine gives Iran an advantage, but one should also take into consideration the negotiations on the renewal of the Iran nuclear deal. Russia, despite the situation in Ukraine, is acting as a guarantor when it comes to the storage of enriched uranium. This keeps the Tehran regime in check. However, if and when these negotiations are successful, it will put Iran’s gas in direct competition with Russia’s. And to make things even more complicated, this gas will probably pass through either Syria or Turkey.

And so, both Turkey and Iran could be encouraged to shift the balance in Syria. Ankara has, until now, had a clear position regarding the Assad regime, while on this point Iran and Russia stand in the opposite corner. The fragile equilibrium that has been reached might now fall apart, but what maintains it is the interconnections between interests, competition and even confrontation. It seems there are complicated but clear rules of engagement. All parties have not been willing to rock the boat and prefer to keep this balance, while nibbling away at small parts of what Russia no longer has the bandwidth to handle.

This is where everything plays out: How will Russia come out of this situation? Iran, Turkey and Israel understand that, should they move directly against Moscow, the price will be high when it ends its Ukraine military campaign. On the other hand, if Russia comes out weakened and unable to sustain its military presence in Syria, it is clear that both Iran and Turkey will try and gain as much as they can inside Syria, while Israel will look to preserve its interests.

Once again, the constant is that the Assad regime benefits from these shifts and is capable of returning to favor with its allies and supporters, as well as its declared enemies. Regardless of where they stand, and even as far as Lebanon is concerned, it seems they need this regime to preserve the current equilibrium. Turkey needs it to avoid Kurdish independence, Israel needs it as a weak neighbor and Iran needs it to blackmail Europe from the shores of the Mediterranean.

The Middle East is an unforgiving region when it comes to geopolitics. Every weakness or change will be exploited. After the US’ withdrawal, one is left to wonder if Russia might be next in turning its back on the region. It is a highly unlikely scenario, but regional leaders are starting to consider it. And it seems that the outcome might include a mix of ongoing dialogue, rebuilding plans and military strikes.