Sharing the cake of Russia’s presence in Syria

Several actors are reportedly trying to take advantage of Russia’s distraction with the invasion of Ukraine to advance their presence in Syria.  

While the Kremlin is focusing all its military resources on the war in the face of the failure of the first few weeks, several reports suggest that it is moving regular troops and Wagner mercenaries from other theatres.  

According to the independent media outlet The Moscow Times, Moscow has begun to withdraw a significant number of its troops from Syria to transfer them to Ukraine, and is even being forced to abandon several of its air bases in the country.  

For its part, a report by the Israeli think tank Alma Research and Education Center speaks of sending part of the more than 10,000 regular Russian soldiers that would be in Syria in the face of the invasion of Ukraine, although the same report states that ‘it is not clear that, in light of the war in Ukraine, Russia has substantially reduced the number of troops in Syria’, pointing to the strategic nature of this country for the Kremlin.  

Meanwhile, according to British intelligence, the private military company Wagner has reportedly deployed up to 1,000 mercenaries in eastern Ukraine at the expense of its operations in Africa and Syria. Wagner, headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a figure close to Vladimir Putin, is accused of doing the Kremlin’s dirty work. In addition to Syria, the group has been involved in many other conflicts, from Libya to Mozambique, but is now scaling down its operations in these countries to join the offensive in the Donbass, where it appears to be taking a leading role on the battlefield. 

Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015 at the request of Damascus, and since then has become the main actor in the country and the main supporter of Bashar al-Assad, overcoming other powers that were also seeking to establish their own agenda, such as Iran and Turkey. However, a Russian withdrawal of troops could be exploited by these countries to gain ground. 

Iran is al-Assad’s other major ally, having also intervened on his behalf directly and through proxies such as Hezbollah. However, Tehran has reportedly played a lesser role than Moscow, and its military presence in Syria has been threatened by constant Israeli bombardment, with Russian acquiescence.  

But now, according to The Moscow Times, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah are reportedly occupying the air bases that the Kremlin is said to have abandoned, although these rumours have not yet been confirmed. 

Meanwhile, on 8 May, al-Assad made a surprise visit to Iran, meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi, his first trip to the Persian country since 2019 and his second trip since the start of the civil war in 2011. “This connection and relationship is vital for the two countries and we must not allow it to weaken, on the contrary, we must strengthen it as much as possible,” Khamenei said at the time.  

For many observers, the context of the visit has not gone unnoticed, and al-Assad may be seeking to bolster Iranian support amid a potential reduced Russian role in the country. 

The other actor that seems to be taking advantage of the Russian distraction is none other than Turkey. In this regard, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, announced last Monday that the country will soon launch a new military operation in northern Syria. 

“We will soon take new steps to complete the 30-kilometre-deep security zones we have established along our southern border,” said the Turkish president. “The operation will begin as soon as our army, intelligence service and police finalise their preparations,” Erdoğan concluded, saying the details would be finalised at next Thursday’s meeting of the National Security Council. 

The target would be areas under the control of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia that is part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which was instrumental in defeating Islamic State. Ankara accuses the YPG of being an offshoot of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a leftist grouping that has waged an armed insurgency against Turkey since 1984. 

The announcement comes shortly after Erdoğan announced a goal of returning up to one million Syrian refugees to Ankara-occupied “safe zones” amid growing social pressure and opposition to the presence of some 3.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.

This would be the fourth Turkish incursion since the start of the civil war in Turkey in 2011, in an attempt to control the Turkish-Syrian border against the Islamic State and the YPG. The last one, in 2019, failed to achieve its objectives, as Russia and forces loyal to Damascus entered YPG territory, leading to a ceasefire and an agreement on joint patrols between Moscow and Ankara, which have since tried to maintain a complex balance of forces in northern Syria. 

However, a possible weakening of the Russian presence in the Arab country may allow Turkey to finish what it has started and fully establish its ‘safe zones’. 

Moreover, Erdoğan’s announcement comes in the context of his rejection of NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, accusing them of supporting the PKK, a move that Marc Pierini, an expert on Turkey and the Middle East, believes is more related to Turkey’s 2023 presidential and legislative elections, in which the AKP leader is trailing his rivals in the polls.  

However, Pierini argues, ‘this question is diminished by the inescapable feeling that the Turkish objection is also intended to play into the hands of the Kremlin, although this was denied by government circles in Ankara’. Nur-Sultan: possible conclave? 

Pending further details on the Turkish offensive and the possible increase in Iranian influence, a first contact could take place at the next round of the so-called Astana peace process, tentatively scheduled for 14-16 June, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry spokesman announced on Tuesday.  

Held in Kazakhstan’s capital (from 2019 called Nur-Sutan), the Astana peace process was launched by Russia, Turkey and Iran in 2017, with the aim of reaching a solution to the Syrian conflict satisfactory to all three parties. Now Moscow, Ankara and Tehran have the opportunity to meet for the first time since the invasion began in order to establish the new rules of the game in Syria and manage the possible Russian withdrawal. 

 

 

 

 

Source: Atalayar

 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Observatory