SOHR: Iran-US conflict heats up in Deir ez-Zor: What is next?
US forces and Iranian-backed militias were involved in tit-for-tat attacks across the Euphrates river in Deir ez-Zor Governorate, eastern Syria, in the last two days, on March 23 and 24. According to the latest information, the attacks left one US military contractor dead, as well as five servicemen and another contractor injured. Retaliatory bombing killed at least 20 Iranian-backed militants. An undeclared number of civilians were also injured by an Iranian missile that went off-course. It is the largest flare-up of violence between the two countries since 2019. How will it affect their relationship, and the wider region?
What happened?
The most recent exchange in violence was set off by a drone attack on a US military airstrip near Rmelan, in the far northeast of Syria, at 1:38pm on March 23. This is notable, as the American base lies 140km north of the closest Iranian positions in Syria. The drone is likely to have come from within Syria, though it could have originated in Iraq, which is swarming with pro-Iranian militias. Mosul is only 120km to the east of the Rmelan base.
According to a US Central Command (CENTCOM) statement, a “one-way” drone hit the base, leading to the death of one American contractor, the injury of another, and wounding five US soldiers. US officials told the New York Times that the base’s defense systems were “not fully operational,” though the Pentagon denies this.
In response, US President Joe Biden directed CENTCOM to conduct airstrikes on Iranian positions in Deir ez-Zor in the early hours of March 24. There, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively controls the territory on the western banks of the Euphrates. It also funds and trains a myriad of Syrian and foreign militias. The strikes were in retaliation for the most recent attack, as well as a number of other attacks against US forces in the region, Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of Defense, announced.
US officials say that two Air Force F-15E jets hit a munitions warehouse and a control building nearby, as well as an intelligence-collection site. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a Britain-based watchdog, said the attacks had hit a warehouse in the Harabish neighbourhood of Deir ez-Zor city, as well as targets in the outskirts of al-Mayadin and the outskirts of Abu Kamal, near the Iraqi border.
According to the same source, 20 militants were killed, including six in Deir ez-Zor, two in al-Mayadin, and three in Abu Kamal. Of the total, 11 are Syrians working for Iranian-backed militias, three are Syrian government soldiers, and five are foreigners in Iranian-backed militias.
Twelve hours later, US CENTCOM announced that ten rockets had been fired from the western bank of the Euphrates River against its Green Village base, less than 8km from the dividing river. CENTCOM said the attack had resulted in no American casualties. However, it said one rocket veered off course and hit a civilian settlement, injuring a number of people. Euphrates Post, a local news site, released pictures of a destroyed house and rocket fragments, though did not refer to any casualties. According to an accompanying statement, Coalition forces visited the site.
The rockets were likely fired from a base near the Ayn Ali shrine, south of al-Mayadin, which is home to Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas, a Syrian Shia militia with a number of Afghan and Iranian members. A secret prison run by the IRGC is found 600 meters down the road.
The Associated Press also reported that a US service member was injured by a parallel rocket attack on the US’ Conoco base, 16km west of Deir ez-Zor city.
SOHR reports that the US-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS launched a “security operation” around their Rmelan base, arresting several people on the suspicion of “dealing with the Iranian-backed militias.”
The US also began patrolling around its base in al-Tanf, on the tri-border area with Jordan and Iraq. Several US military helicopters reportedly circled the perimeter of the American position there.
In west Deir ez-Zor, Iranian-backed militias evacuated several military bases over fears of more attacks. Activists quoted by SOHR saw the most movement in al-Mayadin, the so-called ‘capital of Iranian militias in Syria’.
According to local sources, another explosion was heard near the Green Village base on Saturday evening, though no further attacks have been confirmed.
On Saturday, a Iranian-funded group called Liwa al-Ghalibun took responsibility for the drone attack on March 23.
Why did it happen?
Attacks by Iranian-backed groups against US military personnel are nothing new. The US armed forces say their positions in Syria have been attacked 78 times by Iranian-backed groups since the beginning of 2021. A similar tit-for-tat scenario occurred in early 2021. More recently, Iranian-backed groups attacked US positions in al-Tanf last August.
However, the strike against the US base in Rmelan is sure to make generals in Washington prop up. The base has been attacked before, for example, in November 2021. But not since then. More recently, it served as a landing strip for a US state aircraft carrying the country’s top military officer, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, three weeks ago.
More importantly, the attacks lead to an American death, and several injuries to its armed forces. That is a brazen escalation of hostilities at a time when Iran is attempting make peace with former regional foes. So why now?
In recent weeks, Iran seemed to want to ease long-time hostilities. A Chinese-brokered deal is thought to have ended the feud between Tehran and Riyadh. In tandem, it may also end some of the bloodshed in Yemen, where the two countries have been fighting out a proxy war.
Its client state, Syria, is also enjoying a new-found acceptance among regional players, recently normalizing relations with a number of Gulf countries, and on the path to a rapprochement with Ankara, too.
Earlier this month, Tehran voiced its intention to allow the UN atomic watchdog to increase inspections on Iranian nuclear facilities in a bid to resuscitate some part of the 2015 nuclear deal framework it signed with a number of international players.
The underlying logic behind all of these decisions is the Iranian government’s weakness at home. Iran’s economy has been ravaged by US-imposed sanctions. Since late last year, the country has been rocked by widespread popular protests with civil and economic demands. Forging closer ties to one-time foes, especially in the region, can help the government in Tehran escape some of the economic woes. According to The Economist, after the deal with Saudi Arabia, the Iranian rial appreciated by about 14 percent against the dollar.
But the same economic drivers also explain why “Iran wants a détente with its neighbours but not the US,” as The Economist’s headline announces. The Biden administration has attempted to repair some of the damage done by President Donald Trump, who withdrew from the aforementioned nuclear deal in 2018. But Iran’s leaders no longer trust the American government. Instead, Iran has sought to integrate its economy further with Russia’s and China’s.
Iran’s connection to Russia is a particular problem for Washington. The two countries are attempting to overcome US-imposed sanctions through one another. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran has outfitted the aggressor with kamikaze drones and plans to build an arms factory in the country. Since the invasion, trade between the two has jumped from $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Russia itself seemed to want to test US forces in Syria when it conducted a number of flights over the al-Tanf base this week.
It has also not helped that Israel has massively increased strikes against Iran (as well as Syria) with little to no protests from the American government. In January, Israel’s spy agency allegedly bombed a weapon’s manufacturing center in Isfahan. Israel’s outgoing army chief revealed that the country’s armed forces had concrete plans for pre-emptive strikes on Iranian targets over Tehran’s nuclear programme that same month.
Iran is feeling its influence decreasing in the Middle East. Its popularity in Shia dominated parts of Lebanon and Iraq is dwindling. Yet its military capability is intact. The attacks in Syria may be a way asserting its own position, or for the IRGC – a powerful force in its own right – to dictate state policy. Moreover, the attacks may also be testing the US’ willingness to get involved in more Middle Eastern conflicts.
What effects did it have?
The attack is unlikely to spiral out of control. Back-and-forth attacks between both parties are common, in relative terms. There also hardly remains an Iranian-funded group in Syria not already on the US terrorist list, or a set of sanctions Washington has not already imposed on Iran. However, the death of an American in Syria will bring a forgotten US war back into the limelight. This could have far-reaching consequences.
In the direct aftermath of the first attack, Washington attempted to avoid appearing weak, but sought not to escalate the situation. President Biden said the US “does not seek conflict with Iran,” but that it would be prepared “to act forcefully to protect” Americans. Asked whether Washington holds Tehran responsible for the death of the American, the Department of Defense Press Secretary, Gen Patrick Ryder, said that, “Iran certainly backs these groups, and by default, therefore has a responsibility to ensure that they’re not contributing to insecurity, instability. But, clearly they continue to do that.”
However, President Biden was quick to earn rounds of criticism from his Republican colleagues. Much of it was to be expected. Lindsey Graham, a Senator from South Carolina, said that “Gen Milley and Secretary of Defense Austin are not proving that they are up to the task of providing the deterrence America needs to stay safe. However, the ultimate blame for the failed foreign policy and military situation we find rests with President Biden.” Similarly, Mike Waltz, a Representative for Florida’s 6th district, said the president was pursuing a policy of “appeasement”.
Much more dangerous, however, are the voices that are calling for a US withdrawal from Syria. On March 8, the House of Representatives voted 103-321 against a bill that would have taken the US out of Syria entirely. It was championed by Matt Gaetz, a Representative from Florida. Part of the appeal for Gaetz is that he represents the country’s district with the largest US base and the highest percentage of veterans, for whom America’s ‘forever wars’ and needless military deaths are deeply unpopular.
However, Gaetz also adheres to an isolationist philosophy that appeals to both the Trumpist right and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. After the attack on Thursday, Gaetz tweeted that “this is the price of guarding oil fields in other countries, presumably forever. Iran continues to stain desert sands with the blood of America’s best – with ready, available, relatively cheap technology.”
For now, the ghosts of the disastrous pullout from northern Syria in 2019 and, more importantly, the catastrophic 2021 withdrawal out of Afghanistan still haunts America’s armed forces and political class. Yet March 20, 2023, also marked 20 years since the US got bogged down in a ‘forever war’ in Iraq, which cost the lives of over 4,600 US personnel.
The US’ just under 1,000 men and women in Syria’s northeast are still crucial in providing stability to the autonomously-run region and keeping Iran in check. But many Americans will begin to ask, at what cost? Such sentiment could grow if Trump – or one of his many imitators – clutches the presidency in 2024. If Iran’s militias were any smarter, they would have launched this attack two weeks earlier.
Source: North Press