In the first month of 2018…the organization returns to gain new spaces in Syria and the regime forces, their allies and SDF expand their influence more with the loss of factions

About 400 villages which the factions and Hayyaat Tahrir al-Sham lost, revived the presence of ISIS in provinces it lost its presence in them earlier and contributed to the expansion of regime’s scope of control

The past few weeks and days of the first month of 2018, have witnessed a change in the field of conflict, and in the influence of the conflicting powers inside the Syrian territory, as the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitored the advancement of the regime forces and their allies of Syrian and non-Syrian nationalities, and the Syria Democratic Forces and the withdrawal of the rebel and Islamic factions, while the “Islamic State” organization re-created its presences in 3 provinces which it was expelled from during the past months and years, changing the scene again, between a party won new spaces, a party lost others, and a party maintained its areas of presence during the recent battles.

After the collapse of the “Islamic State” organization and confining its scope of control greatly, the organization which in mid-2015 used to control more than half of Syria’s area with more than 50%, and collapsed then to control an area of only 3% of the Syrian territory, returned to advance expanding its control to an area of 6778 square km with a percentage of 3.7% of the Syrian territory, in which the organization controls 5 villages and towns on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River which are Al-Bahra, Hajin, Gharanij, Abu al-Hassan, Sha’afah, Al-Baghuz, and the organization is also presented in the part in the north-eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor, which is connected with the southern countryside of Al-Hasakah which still include 22 villages and areas including Tal Al-Jaber, Tal al-Mnakh, Om Haffur, al-Rimat, Fakkah al-Tarraf, Fakkah al-Shwaykh, al-Hessu, al-Bawardi, al-Dshishiyah, Bajari Desert adjacent al-Suwar Desert which includes the administrative borders between Deir Ezzor and Al-Hasakah, and ISIS managed to advance in two fronts one of them was at the expense of the regime forces and the other was at the expense of Hayyaat Tahrir al-Sham, and took the control of 82 villages at least in Hama – Aleppo – Homs Triangle, and the organization still imposes its control on large spaces in the southern section of the capital Damascus, in large areas of Yarmouk Camp and Al-Tadamon neighborhood as well as large spaces of Al-Hajar al-Aswad neighborhood, and it is also presented in 14 communities in the eastern desert of Al-Sukhnah city in the eastern countryside of Homs and Al-Tiba area north of Al-Sukhnah.

And the regime forces which turned into the largest influential power that control the largest space in Syria, after their great advancement in 2017, managed to expand their scope of control again, and became in control of an area of about 56.87% of the geographical area of Syria with an area of more than 105172 square kilometers. The regime exists in the center of the provinces of Damascus. Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Tartous, Suwaidaa, Daraa , Hasaka, Deir Ezzor, and Quneitra, and the regime forces completely control Tartous and Suwaidaa provinces, and almost control Latakia province, and they also control large parts of the provinces of Damascus, Rif Dimashq, Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, and parts of the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra, while the regime forces has no presence at all in Idlib province after their presence was confined in Kafriya and al-Fu’aa, while the regime forces’ presence in Hasaka is limited to several positions in the cities of Hasaka and Qameshly and the vicinity of the latter, while the regime exists in large parts in the southern, western, southwestern countryside of Raqqa, in addition to its control over Deir Ezzor city and the entire western banks of the Euphrates River which is extended from Deir Ezzor border with Al-Raqqah, to the Syrian – Iraqi border with the eastern banks of the Euphrates River opposite Deir Ezzor city and its airport.

While the Syria Democratic Forces, of which the YPG is their main pillar, have expanded their scope of control maintaining their position as the 2nd influential power in terms of their areas of control of the geographical area of Syria, and the Syria Democratic Forces became in control of a geographical area of more 50839 square kilometers of the Syrian territory with about 27.4%, after they managed lately to achieve large advancement, where the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitored the large advancement of the People’s Protections Units (YPG) and the Syria Democratic Force, which was achieved after the intensive support of the International Coalition’s warplanes and advisors, in addition to the military reinforcement delivered consecutively and in large amounts to the Syria Democratic Forces, and were distributed to their areas of control that are extending from the Syrian – Turkish border, to the western countryside of Manbij, including Raqqa and parts of Deir Ezzor, in addition to their control over neighborhoods in the city of Aleppo and over Afrin area and other villages extending from Deir Jamal to al-Shala area in the northeastern countryside of Aleppo.

While the scope of control of the rebel and Islamic factions, Hayyaat Tahrir al-Sham, Turkmenistan Islamic Party, and other factions include “Jihadist” fighters, which used to control large areas of the Syrian territory, has declined but they still maintain their position as the 3rd influential power, where became in control of an area of 11.9% of the areas of control in Syria, with a geographical area reached more than 22144 square km of the entire area of Syria. Within the total percent and the whole areas controlled by the factions, the “Euphrates Shield” Operation Factions and the Turkish forces control an area of more than 2250 square kilometers, which is about 1.2%, while the West and US-backed factions operating in the Syrian Desert in the area extending from al-Tanf – Kharbat al-Shahmi crossing to the north of Kharbat al-Zakaf, in which a camp of these factions is set up, control an area of about 3550 square kilometers, which is about 1.9% percent of the geographical area of Syria. The factions, with the declining of the “Islamic State” organization, have become the third influential power in term of the controlled areas in Syria after the regime force and the Syria Democratic Forces.

Jaysh Khaled Ibn al-Waleed, which pledges allegiance to the “Islamic State” organization, controls an area of about 250 square kilometers, which is about 0.13 percent of the area of the Syrian territory and the Jaysh exist in Yarmouk Basin in the western countryside of Daraa, which is adjacent to the occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

This change in control during the first month of 2018, enabled the regime forces to expand their control further, where this expansion concentrated in Hama – Aleppo – Homs Triangle, while the control of SDF expanded on the eastern banks of the Euphrates River, and ISIS expanded its control and revived its presence in 3 provinces where it permanently lost its presence earlier, while the only loser was the rebel and Islamic factions which lost about 400 towns and villages, with an area of ​​hundreds of square kilometers, in the southern countryside of Aleppo, the north-eastern countryside of Hama and the eastern and the south-eastern countryside of Idlib, for the regime and the organization, and this month of expansion and loss, witnessed an attack by the Turkish forces within the “Olive Branch” Operation which the rebel and Islamic factions take part in, and which aims to impose the control of Afrin area controlled by the YPG and the Self-Defense forces.

Link of a High resolution map shows the distribution of military powers and influences in the Syrian territory