Turkey, Syria set the stage for full normalisation with Russia’s blessing

With the help of Russia, Turkey and Syria seem set for the last stretch of their normalisation process sparking worries among anti-Assad opposition factions as well as the wariness of Washington that the process would promote Russian interests in the region..

Turkey, Syria and Russia intend to hold a meeting of their foreign ministers this month, and possibly before the middle of next week, though no date or location has yet been chosen, a senior Turkish official told Reuters on Wednesday.

Such a meeting would mark the highest-level talks between Ankara and Damascus since the Syrian war began in 2011.

Bloomberg recently reported that Turkey, which backed the 2011 rebellion against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, is “now prepared to publicly recognize” his rule over Syria and work to rebuild diplomatic, security and trade ties, “to the detriment of US-backed forces”.

Turkey and Syria mending ties “will be a success for Russia,” said Elena Suponina, a Middle East specialist based in Moscow, told Bloomberg.

“In particular, Ankara’s new partnership with Damascus will strengthen the Kremlin’s role in the Middle East and put pressure on Washington to pull out its remaining foothold in Syria.” Suponina said.

According to Middle East experts, the process of reconciliation is also backed by a number of Arab countries including the UAE whose foreign minister recently visited Damascus and met with Assad.

“Today countries in the region are increasingly acting independently of the US,” added Suponina.

NATO member Turkey has played a major part in the conflict, backing Assad’s opponents and sending troops into the north. Moscow is Assad’s main ally and Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly urged reconciliation with Ankara.

Turkish official sources say the meeting could happen either before or after Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is scheduled to meet US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the United States on January 18.

“Discussions are continuing (and) an exact date is not yet set. There are no problems with the meeting, they are just working on timing,” a Turkish official said, adding it would happen either in Moscow or another location.

The Turkish and Syrian defence ministers held landmark talks in Moscow last month to discuss border security and other issues. Last week, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he may meet Assad after a trilateral foreign ministers meeting.

Syrian pro-government newspaper Al-Watan reported on Monday there were no specific dates set for the trilateral meeting. Moscow has not commented on meeting plans.

Reconciling demands

Washington is opposed to countries re-establishing ties with Assad. It has partnered with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which includes the YPG militia, in fighting Islamic State (ISIS) extremists in Syria.

“We will not normalise and we do not support other countries normalising relations with the Assad regime,” US State Department spokesperson Ned Price said earlier this month, regarding the possibility of an Erdogan-Assad meeting.

The meeting of Syrian, Turkish and Russian top diplomats would shift talks toward political issues and away from security, and set the stage for Erdogan and Assad to meet, the senior official said. Before that to happen, the gap between the two sides has to be bridged.

A senior Turkish official told Reuters that Ankara seeks the safe return of Syrian refugees and cooperation with Damascus in targeting the YPG, the primary target of its ongoing cross-border military strikes.

Sources close to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey also say that restoring relations with Damascus was conditional on “clearing Syria of the PKK and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, completely eliminating threats on the border, Damascus’ engagement of the opposition in a process of political and military integration, and starting the repatriation of Syrian refugees starting with Homs and Aleppo as test cases, and the implementation of the Geneva process, including holding elections and the release of detainees.”

The return of Syrian refugees from Turkey, who are estimated to number about 3.5 million, would earn Erdogan political dividends at home prior to elections, set for later this year.

The Turkish opposition is pressing Erdogan to speed up the “voluntary” return of nearly four million Syrians who fled the fighting to Turkey.

Anti-refugees sentiments are running high in Turkey ahead of the election and Erdogan has hardened his once-accepting stance towards people displaced by war.

Conditions set by Damascus, according to the same AKP sources, include “handing over Idlib and the Bab al-Hawa and Kassab border crossings to the Syrian government, placing the international road Aleppo-Latakia ‘M-4’ under full control of Damascus, and Ankara’s support for the lifting the sanctions imposed on Damascus, cooperation in eliminating terrorism, and support for Syria’s return to the Arab League and international organisations.”

Analysts say that what Erdogan cares about mostly is to reach an agreement with Assad on securing Turkey’s borders, especially in Kurdish-controlled areas, and that if he gets what he wants, he is likely to hand over the currently opposition-controlled areas to Damascus without necessarily asking for guarantees for his previous Syrian allies.

Predictably, the process with Assad has alarmed Syrian opposition leaders and their supporters who reside mostly in parts of Syria under Turkish watch.

They have urged their decade-long backer Turkey to reaffirm its support for their cause.

The head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamic extremist group, said in a video address published on Monday that talks between Syria, Russia and Turkey were a “dangerous deviation”.

Ahrar al-Sham, another hardline Islamist faction, said that while it “understood the situation of our Turkish ally,” it “cannot even think of reconciling” with the Syrian government.

In the meanwhile, Ankara sought to reassure the opposition, with Defence Minister Hulusi Akar saying Turkey would not take any step that would harm them.

The Syrian National Coalition (SNC), an opposition umbrella organisation, met Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in recent days.

He reassured it of Turkey’s continued support “to Syrian opposition institutions and Syrians in the opposition-held areas,” said Abdurrahman Mustafa, the head of the Turkey-backed opposition’s provisional government.

The conflict in Syria, which has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and drawn in regional and world powers, has ground on into a second decade, although fighting has cooled.

With backing from Russia and Iran, Assad’s government has recovered most Syrian territory. Turkish-backed opposition fighters still control a pocket in the northwest, and Kurdish fighters backed by the United States also control territory near the Turkish border.